Real Tomayapo vs Blooming
- Real Tomayapo41%
- Draw29%
- Blooming30%
0.92 expected goals for Real Tomayapo
1.13 expected goals for Blooming
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Real Tomayapo has the edge (41%), but not by much: a draw is at 29% and a Blooming win at 30%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Real Tomayapo attack, which scores 33% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 45% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 10.1 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Real Tomayapo
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Real Tomayapo attack−33%
- Blooming defence−9%
Expected goals0.92
Blooming
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Blooming attack−13%
- Real Tomayapo defence−5%
Expected goals1.13
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals86%
- Over 1.5 goals61%
- Over 2.5 goals45%
- Over 3.5 goals15%
- Over 4.5 goals6%
- Both teams score50%
- Real Tomayapo or draw70%
- Draw or Blooming59%
- No draw71%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.1 expected
5.1 for Real Tomayapo and 5.0 for Blooming
- Over 8.5 corners63%
- Over 9.5 corners52%
- Over 10.5 corners42%
Cards
5.1 expected
2.6 for Real Tomayapo and 2.5 for Blooming
- Over 3.5 cards74%
- Over 4.5 cards57%
- Over 5.5 cards39%
Shots
29.7 expected
15.5 for Real Tomayapo and 14.2 for Blooming
- Over 20.5 shots89%
- Over 22.5 shots82%
- Over 24.5 shots74%
Fouls
27.5 expected
15.6 for Real Tomayapo and 11.9 for Blooming
- Over 20.5 fouls89%
- Over 22.5 fouls81%
- Over 24.5 fouls69%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.