Track record

When we said…, did it happen?

Each match gives three probabilities: home win, draw and away win. We group them by what we said and count how often it happened. If the numbers are honest, the bar ends at the line.

How often it happenedWhat we said

1. 0–10%13%of 78When we said 0–10% (6% on average), it happened 13% of the time, in 78 cases.
2. 10–20%17%of 271When we said 10–20% (16% on average), it happened 17% of the time, in 271 cases.
3. 20–30%25%of 868When we said 20–30% (25% on average), it happened 25% of the time, in 868 cases.
4. 30–40%34%of 486When we said 30–40% (34% on average), it happened 34% of the time, in 486 cases.
5. 40–50%42%of 331When we said 40–50% (44% on average), it happened 42% of the time, in 331 cases.
6. 50–60%56%of 178When we said 50–60% (55% on average), it happened 56% of the time, in 178 cases.
7. 60–70%70%of 89When we said 60–70% (64% on average), it happened 70% of the time, in 89 cases.
8. 70–100%72%of 69When we said 70–100% (80% on average), it happened 72% of the time, in 69 cases.

Rows with few cases jump around by pure chance: with 40 cases, a true 50% can come out as 40% or 60%. They get steadier every week.