Probably Football

Matches

Copa Ecuador (Ecuador)

Independiente del Valle vs Delfin SC

  1. Independiente del Valle77%
  2. Draw16%
  3. Delfin SC7%

2.53 expected goals for Independiente del Valle

0.65 expected goals for Delfin SC

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Independiente del Valle the clear favourite: 77% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Independiente del Valle attack, which scores 104% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Independiente del Valle defence, which lets in 48% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 56% chance, and both teams scoring, 48%. And about 9.7 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Independiente del Valle

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Independiente del Valle attack+104%
  3. Delfin SC defence−18%

Expected goals2.53

Delfin SC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Delfin SC attack−7%
  2. Independiente del Valle defence−48%

Expected goals0.65

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals83%
  3. Over 2.5 goals56%
  4. Over 3.5 goals39%
  5. Over 4.5 goals22%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.7 expected

5.6 for Independiente del Valle and 4.0 for Delfin SC

  1. Over 8.5 corners59%
  2. Over 9.5 corners48%
  3. Over 10.5 corners38%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.7 for Independiente del Valle and 2.5 for Delfin SC

  1. Over 3.5 cards61%
  2. Over 4.5 cards41%
  3. Over 5.5 cards25%

Shots

24.9 expected

14.7 for Independiente del Valle and 10.1 for Delfin SC

  1. Over 20.5 shots73%
  2. Over 22.5 shots61%
  3. Over 24.5 shots49%

Fouls

21.7 expected

10.4 for Independiente del Valle and 11.3 for Delfin SC

  1. Over 20.5 fouls58%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls42%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls28%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.