Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Europa League (International)

Sparta Praha vs Bournemouth

  1. Sparta Praha18%
  2. Draw18%
  3. Bournemouth64%

0.86 expected goals for Sparta Praha

2.49 expected goals for Bournemouth

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Bournemouth the clear favourite: 64% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Bournemouth defence, which lets in 62% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Bournemouth attack, which scores 160% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 58% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 9.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Sparta Praha

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Sparta Praha attack+48%
  3. Bournemouth defence−62%

Expected goals0.86

Bournemouth

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Bournemouth attack+160%
  2. Sparta Praha defence−29%

Expected goals2.49

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals85%
  3. Over 2.5 goals58%
  4. Over 3.5 goals43%
  5. Over 4.5 goals25%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

5.3 for Sparta Praha and 4.6 for Bournemouth

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

4.3 expected

1.9 for Sparta Praha and 2.4 for Bournemouth

  1. Over 3.5 cards62%
  2. Over 4.5 cards43%
  3. Over 5.5 cards26%

Shots

26.1 expected

11.7 for Sparta Praha and 14.4 for Bournemouth

  1. Over 20.5 shots78%
  2. Over 22.5 shots68%
  3. Over 24.5 shots56%

Fouls

26.2 expected

12.9 for Sparta Praha and 13.3 for Bournemouth

  1. Over 20.5 fouls85%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls74%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls60%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.