Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Europa League (International)

Crystal Palace vs 1899 Hoffenheim

  1. Crystal Palace48%
  2. Draw20%
  3. 1899 Hoffenheim32%

1.83 expected goals for Crystal Palace

1.49 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Crystal Palace has the edge (48%), but not by much: a draw is at 20% and a 1899 Hoffenheim win at 32%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the 1899 Hoffenheim attack, which scores 84% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Crystal Palace attack, which scores 75% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 58% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 10.3 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Crystal Palace

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Crystal Palace attack+75%
  3. 1899 Hoffenheim defence−31%

Expected goals1.83

1899 Hoffenheim

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. 1899 Hoffenheim attack+84%
  2. Crystal Palace defence−40%

Expected goals1.49

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals85%
  3. Over 2.5 goals58%
  4. Over 3.5 goals42%
  5. Over 4.5 goals24%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.3 expected

5.1 for Crystal Palace and 5.2 for 1899 Hoffenheim

  1. Over 8.5 corners64%
  2. Over 9.5 corners54%
  3. Over 10.5 corners44%

Cards

4.5 expected

1.9 for Crystal Palace and 2.6 for 1899 Hoffenheim

  1. Over 3.5 cards66%
  2. Over 4.5 cards47%
  3. Over 5.5 cards30%

Shots

24.1 expected

12.2 for Crystal Palace and 11.9 for 1899 Hoffenheim

  1. Over 20.5 shots69%
  2. Over 22.5 shots57%
  3. Over 24.5 shots45%

Fouls

24.1 expected

11.3 for Crystal Palace and 12.8 for 1899 Hoffenheim

  1. Over 20.5 fouls74%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls60%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls45%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.