Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Europa League (International)

Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille

  1. Bayer Leverkusen59%
  2. Draw18%
  3. Marseille23%

2.41 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen

1.50 expected goals for Marseille

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Bayer Leverkusen the clear favourite: 59% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Bayer Leverkusen attack, which scores 142% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Marseille attack, which scores 105% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 60% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 9.6 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Bayer Leverkusen

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Bayer Leverkusen attack+142%
  3. Marseille defence−34%

Expected goals2.41

Marseille

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Marseille attack+105%
  2. Bayer Leverkusen defence−46%

Expected goals1.50

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%
  2. Over 1.5 goals91%
  3. Over 2.5 goals60%
  4. Over 3.5 goals55%
  5. Over 4.5 goals35%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.6 expected

5.4 for Bayer Leverkusen and 4.2 for Marseille

  1. Over 8.5 corners58%
  2. Over 9.5 corners47%
  3. Over 10.5 corners37%

Cards

4.2 expected

2.0 for Bayer Leverkusen and 2.2 for Marseille

  1. Over 3.5 cards60%
  2. Over 4.5 cards41%
  3. Over 5.5 cards24%

Shots

28.9 expected

19.2 for Bayer Leverkusen and 9.7 for Marseille

  1. Over 20.5 shots86%
  2. Over 22.5 shots78%
  3. Over 24.5 shots69%

Fouls

23.5 expected

12.7 for Bayer Leverkusen and 10.8 for Marseille

  1. Over 20.5 fouls71%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls56%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls41%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.