Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Champions League (International)

Lens vs Como

  1. Lens34%
  2. Draw21%
  3. Como45%

1.37 expected goals for Lens

1.76 expected goals for Como

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Como has the edge (45%), but not by much: a draw is at 21% and a Lens win at 34%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Como attack, which scores 138% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Como defence, which lets in 57% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance, and both teams scoring, 55%. And about 9.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Lens

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Lens attack+109%
  3. Como defence−57%

Expected goals1.37

Como

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Como attack+138%
  2. Lens defence−45%

Expected goals1.76

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals82%
  3. Over 2.5 goals57%
  4. Over 3.5 goals38%
  5. Over 4.5 goals21%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.4 expected

5.6 for Lens and 3.8 for Como

  1. Over 8.5 corners55%
  2. Over 9.5 corners45%
  3. Over 10.5 corners35%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.9 for Lens and 2.3 for Como

  1. Over 3.5 cards61%
  2. Over 4.5 cards41%
  3. Over 5.5 cards25%

Shots

25.4 expected

13.9 for Lens and 11.5 for Como

  1. Over 20.5 shots75%
  2. Over 22.5 shots64%
  3. Over 24.5 shots53%

Fouls

24.2 expected

12.1 for Lens and 12.1 for Como

  1. Over 20.5 fouls75%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls61%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls46%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.