Probably Football

Matches

AFC Champions League Elite (International)

Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

  1. Al-Hilal Saudi FC63%
  2. Draw21%
  3. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai16%

1.93 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC

0.89 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Al-Hilal Saudi FC the clear favourite: 63% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Al-Hilal Saudi FC defence, which lets in 56% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack, which scores 109% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 9.6 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack+109%
  3. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai defence−39%

Expected goals1.93

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack+49%
  2. Al-Hilal Saudi FC defence−56%

Expected goals0.89

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals78%
  3. Over 2.5 goals51%
  4. Over 3.5 goals31%
  5. Over 4.5 goals15%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.6 expected

6.2 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 3.4 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

  1. Over 8.5 corners57%
  2. Over 9.5 corners47%
  3. Over 10.5 corners37%

Cards

3.7 expected

1.5 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 2.2 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

  1. Over 3.5 cards50%
  2. Over 4.5 cards31%
  3. Over 5.5 cards17%

Shots

32.5 expected

23.4 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 9.2 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

  1. Over 20.5 shots92%
  2. Over 22.5 shots87%
  3. Over 24.5 shots80%

Fouls

22.4 expected

11.2 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 11.3 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

  1. Over 20.5 fouls63%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls48%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls33%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.