Probably Football

Matches

2. Bundesliga (Germany)

Eintracht Braunschweig vs Energie Cottbus

  1. Eintracht Braunschweig45%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Energie Cottbus30%

1.69 expected goals for Eintracht Braunschweig

1.33 expected goals for Energie Cottbus

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Eintracht Braunschweig has the edge (45%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a Energie Cottbus win at 30%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Eintracht Braunschweig defence, which lets in 12% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 58% chance, and both teams scoring, 58%. And about 10.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Eintracht Braunschweig

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Eintracht Braunschweig attack+6%
  3. Energie Cottbus defence+5%

Expected goals1.69

Energie Cottbus

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Energie Cottbus attack+10%
  2. Eintracht Braunschweig defence−12%

Expected goals1.33

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals81%
  3. Over 2.5 goals58%
  4. Over 3.5 goals36%
  5. Over 4.5 goals19%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.9 expected

6.2 for Eintracht Braunschweig and 4.7 for Energie Cottbus

  1. Over 8.5 corners69%
  2. Over 9.5 corners60%
  3. Over 10.5 corners50%

Cards

4.4 expected

1.9 for Eintracht Braunschweig and 2.5 for Energie Cottbus

  1. Over 3.5 cards65%
  2. Over 4.5 cards46%
  3. Over 5.5 cards29%

Shots

31.3 expected

18.9 for Eintracht Braunschweig and 12.4 for Energie Cottbus

  1. Over 20.5 shots92%
  2. Over 22.5 shots86%
  3. Over 24.5 shots79%

Fouls

22.6 expected

11.0 for Eintracht Braunschweig and 11.6 for Energie Cottbus

  1. Over 20.5 fouls64%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls49%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls34%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.