Probably Football

Matches

Championship (England)

Wrexham vs Middlesbrough

  1. Wrexham29%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Middlesbrough47%

1.25 expected goals for Wrexham

2.00 expected goals for Middlesbrough

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Middlesbrough has the edge (47%), but not by much: a draw is at 24% and a Wrexham win at 29%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Middlesbrough attack, which scores 70% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Middlesbrough defence, which lets in 29% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 54% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 10.0 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Wrexham

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Wrexham attack+16%
  3. Middlesbrough defence−29%

Expected goals1.25

Middlesbrough

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Middlesbrough attack+70%
  2. Wrexham defence−13%

Expected goals2.00

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals84%
  3. Over 2.5 goals54%
  4. Over 3.5 goals41%
  5. Over 4.5 goals23%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.0 expected

5.5 for Wrexham and 4.5 for Middlesbrough

  1. Over 8.5 corners62%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.6 for Wrexham and 2.1 for Middlesbrough

  1. Over 3.5 cards52%
  2. Over 4.5 cards32%
  3. Over 5.5 cards18%

Shots

29.1 expected

12.6 for Wrexham and 16.5 for Middlesbrough

  1. Over 20.5 shots87%
  2. Over 22.5 shots80%
  3. Over 24.5 shots71%

Fouls

21.4 expected

10.6 for Wrexham and 10.8 for Middlesbrough

  1. Over 20.5 fouls56%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls40%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls26%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.