Montpellier vs Metz
- Montpellier53%
- Draw27%
- Metz20%
1.73 expected goals for Montpellier
0.88 expected goals for Metz
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Montpellier has the edge (53%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a Metz win at 20%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Montpellier defence, which lets in 51% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Metz attack, which scores 31% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 47% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 9.4 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Montpellier
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Montpellier attack+24%
- Metz defence−8%
Expected goals1.73
Metz
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Metz attack+31%
- Montpellier defence−51%
Expected goals0.88
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals92%
- Over 1.5 goals74%
- Over 2.5 goals47%
- Over 3.5 goals26%
- Over 4.5 goals12%
- Both teams score50%
- Montpellier or draw80%
- Draw or Metz47%
- No draw73%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.4 expected
5.3 for Montpellier and 4.1 for Metz
- Over 8.5 corners56%
- Over 9.5 corners46%
- Over 10.5 corners36%
Cards
4.1 expected
1.9 for Montpellier and 2.2 for Metz
- Over 3.5 cards59%
- Over 4.5 cards39%
- Over 5.5 cards23%
Shots
27.4 expected
16.1 for Montpellier and 11.4 for Metz
- Over 20.5 shots83%
- Over 22.5 shots74%
- Over 24.5 shots63%
Fouls
30.0 expected
15.1 for Montpellier and 14.9 for Metz
- Over 20.5 fouls95%
- Over 22.5 fouls90%
- Over 24.5 fouls81%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.