FC OSS vs Waalwijk
- FC OSS33%
- Draw23%
- Waalwijk44%
1.42 expected goals for FC OSS
1.75 expected goals for Waalwijk
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Waalwijk has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 23% and a FC OSS win at 33%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the FC OSS defence, which lets in 24% more goals than an average team. Next comes the FC OSS attack, which scores 17% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 60% chance, and both teams scoring, 59%. And about 11.1 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
FC OSS
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- FC OSS attack−17%
- Waalwijk defence+13%
Expected goals1.42
Waalwijk
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Waalwijk attack+3%
- FC OSS defence+24%
Expected goals1.75
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals95%
- Over 1.5 goals83%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Over 3.5 goals39%
- Over 4.5 goals21%
- Both teams score59%
- FC OSS or draw56%
- Draw or Waalwijk67%
- No draw77%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
11.1 expected
6.0 for FC OSS and 5.0 for Waalwijk
- Over 8.5 corners71%
- Over 9.5 corners61%
- Over 10.5 corners52%
Cards
4.5 expected
2.3 for FC OSS and 2.2 for Waalwijk
- Over 3.5 cards65%
- Over 4.5 cards46%
- Over 5.5 cards29%
Shots
28.5 expected
14.8 for FC OSS and 13.7 for Waalwijk
- Over 20.5 shots86%
- Over 22.5 shots78%
- Over 24.5 shots69%
Fouls
28.1 expected
14.3 for FC OSS and 13.8 for Waalwijk
- Over 20.5 fouls91%
- Over 22.5 fouls83%
- Over 24.5 fouls72%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.