Probably Football

Matches

Eerste Divisie (Netherlands)

Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam

  1. Helmond Sport23%
  2. Draw21%
  3. FC Volendam56%

1.30 expected goals for Helmond Sport

2.55 expected goals for FC Volendam

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes FC Volendam the clear favourite: 56% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Helmond Sport defence, which lets in 64% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Helmond Sport attack, which scores 21% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 63% chance, and both teams scoring, 61%. And about 10.6 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Helmond Sport

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Helmond Sport attack−21%
  3. FC Volendam defence+9%

Expected goals1.30

FC Volendam

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. FC Volendam attack+15%
  2. Helmond Sport defence+64%

Expected goals2.55

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%
  2. Over 1.5 goals90%
  3. Over 2.5 goals63%
  4. Over 3.5 goals54%
  5. Over 4.5 goals34%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.6 expected

6.2 for Helmond Sport and 4.4 for FC Volendam

  1. Over 8.5 corners67%
  2. Over 9.5 corners57%
  3. Over 10.5 corners47%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.7 for Helmond Sport and 2.3 for FC Volendam

  1. Over 3.5 cards56%
  2. Over 4.5 cards36%
  3. Over 5.5 cards21%

Shots

31.6 expected

18.2 for Helmond Sport and 13.4 for FC Volendam

  1. Over 20.5 shots93%
  2. Over 22.5 shots87%
  3. Over 24.5 shots80%

Fouls

22.7 expected

11.6 for Helmond Sport and 11.0 for FC Volendam

  1. Over 20.5 fouls65%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls50%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls35%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.