Popayan vs Envigado
- Popayan30%
- Draw29%
- Envigado41%
1.06 expected goals for Popayan
1.42 expected goals for Envigado
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Envigado has the edge (41%), but not by much: a draw is at 29% and a Popayan win at 30%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Envigado defence, which lets in 21% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Popayan defence, which lets in 23% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 43% chance, and both teams scoring, 48%.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Popayan
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Popayan attack−11%
- Envigado defence−21%
Expected goals1.06
Envigado
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Envigado attack−15%
- Popayan defence+23%
Expected goals1.42
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals91%
- Over 1.5 goals71%
- Over 2.5 goals43%
- Over 3.5 goals24%
- Over 4.5 goals11%
- Both teams score48%
- Popayan or draw59%
- Draw or Envigado70%
- No draw71%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.