Union Magdalena vs Ind. Yumbo
- Union Magdalena48%
- Draw29%
- Ind. Yumbo23%
1.35 expected goals for Union Magdalena
0.95 expected goals for Ind. Yumbo
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Union Magdalena has the edge (48%), but not by much: a draw is at 29% and a Ind. Yumbo win at 23%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Ind. Yumbo attack, which scores 21% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Union Magdalena attack, which scores 15% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 40% chance, and both teams scoring, 46%.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Union Magdalena
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Union Magdalena attack−15%
- Ind. Yumbo defence+5%
Expected goals1.35
Ind. Yumbo
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Ind. Yumbo attack−21%
- Union Magdalena defence−11%
Expected goals0.95
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals89%
- Over 1.5 goals68%
- Over 2.5 goals40%
- Over 3.5 goals20%
- Over 4.5 goals8%
- Both teams score46%
- Union Magdalena or draw77%
- Draw or Ind. Yumbo51%
- No draw71%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.