Probably Football

Matches

Friendlies (International)

Slovakia U18 vs Hungary U18

  1. Slovakia U1841%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Hungary U1834%

1.62 expected goals for Slovakia U18

1.52 expected goals for Hungary U18

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 41%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Slovakia U18 defence, which lets in 12% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 53% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Slovakia U18

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Slovakia U18 attack+6%
  3. Hungary U18 defence+2%

Expected goals1.62

Hungary U18

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Hungary U18 attack−1%
  2. Slovakia U18 defence+12%

Expected goals1.52

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals83%
  3. Over 2.5 goals53%
  4. Over 3.5 goals38%
  5. Over 4.5 goals21%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.