Ind. Yumbo vs Popayan
- Ind. Yumbo48%
- Draw28%
- Popayan24%
1.40 expected goals for Ind. Yumbo
1.03 expected goals for Popayan
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Ind. Yumbo has the edge (48%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Popayan win at 24%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Ind. Yumbo attack, which scores 23% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Popayan attack, which scores 20% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 42% chance, and both teams scoring, 47%.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Ind. Yumbo
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Ind. Yumbo attack−23%
- Popayan defence+20%
Expected goals1.40
Popayan
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Popayan attack−20%
- Ind. Yumbo defence−6%
Expected goals1.03
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals91%
- Over 1.5 goals70%
- Over 2.5 goals42%
- Over 3.5 goals23%
- Over 4.5 goals10%
- Both teams score47%
- Ind. Yumbo or draw77%
- Draw or Popayan52%
- No draw72%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.