Probably Football

Matches

Primera B (Colombia)

Real Cundinamarca vs Tigres FC

  1. Real Cundinamarca47%
  2. Draw32%
  3. Tigres FC21%

1.04 expected goals for Real Cundinamarca

0.67 expected goals for Tigres FC

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Real Cundinamarca has the edge (47%), but not by much: a draw is at 32% and a Tigres FC win at 21%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Tigres FC attack, which scores 42% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Tigres FC defence, which lets in 19% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 1.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 32% chance, and both teams scoring, 40%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Real Cundinamarca

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Real Cundinamarca attack−15%
  3. Tigres FC defence−19%

Expected goals1.04

Tigres FC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Tigres FC attack−42%
  2. Real Cundinamarca defence−15%

Expected goals0.67

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals81%
  2. Over 1.5 goals52%
  3. Over 2.5 goals32%
  4. Over 3.5 goals9%
  5. Over 4.5 goals3%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.