Real Cartagena vs Quindio
- Real Cartagena40%
- Draw30%
- Quindio30%
1.15 expected goals for Real Cartagena
1.11 expected goals for Quindio
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Real Cartagena has the edge (40%), but not by much: a draw is at 30% and a Quindio win at 30%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Quindio defence, which lets in 23% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Quindio attack, which scores 20% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 40% chance, and both teams scoring, 46%.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Real Cartagena
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Real Cartagena attack−2%
- Quindio defence−23%
Expected goals1.15
Quindio
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Quindio attack−20%
- Real Cartagena defence+2%
Expected goals1.11
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals89%
- Over 1.5 goals67%
- Over 2.5 goals40%
- Over 3.5 goals19%
- Over 4.5 goals8%
- Both teams score46%
- Real Cartagena or draw70%
- Draw or Quindio60%
- No draw70%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.