Oxford City vs Leicester
- Oxford City50%
- Draw18%
- Leicester32%
2.31 expected goals for Oxford City
1.54 expected goals for Leicester
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Oxford City has the edge (50%), but not by much: a draw is at 18% and a Leicester win at 32%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Oxford City attack, which scores 65% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Leicester attack, which scores 25% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 66% chance, and both teams scoring, 58%.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Oxford City
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Oxford City attack+65%
- Leicester defence−7%
Expected goals2.31
Leicester
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Leicester attack+25%
- Oxford City defence−10%
Expected goals1.54
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals97%
- Over 1.5 goals90%
- Over 2.5 goals66%
- Over 3.5 goals54%
- Over 4.5 goals34%
- Both teams score58%
- Oxford City or draw68%
- Draw or Leicester50%
- No draw82%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.