Probably Football

Matches

FA Cup (England)

Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United

  1. Bristol Rovers37%
  2. Draw19%
  3. Cambridge United44%

1.08 expected goals for Bristol Rovers

1.58 expected goals for Cambridge United

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 44%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Bristol Rovers attack, which scores 17% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Cambridge United defence, which lets in 14% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 60% chance, and both teams scoring, 55%. And about 11.7 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Bristol Rovers

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Bristol Rovers attack−17%
  3. Cambridge United defence−14%

Expected goals1.08

Cambridge United

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Cambridge United attack+1%
  2. Bristol Rovers defence+15%

Expected goals1.58

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals75%
  3. Over 2.5 goals60%
  4. Over 3.5 goals28%
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.7 expected

5.9 for Bristol Rovers and 5.9 for Cambridge United

  1. Over 8.5 corners76%
  2. Over 9.5 corners67%
  3. Over 10.5 corners58%

Cards

4.3 expected

2.1 for Bristol Rovers and 2.3 for Cambridge United

  1. Over 3.5 cards63%
  2. Over 4.5 cards44%
  3. Over 5.5 cards27%

Shots

27.4 expected

14.9 for Bristol Rovers and 12.4 for Cambridge United

  1. Over 20.5 shots83%
  2. Over 22.5 shots74%
  3. Over 24.5 shots63%

Fouls

24.7 expected

13.6 for Bristol Rovers and 11.1 for Cambridge United

  1. Over 20.5 fouls78%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls65%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls50%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.