Saturday 31 October, 10:45
Academia Cantolao vs Deportivo Binacional
- Academia Cantolao58%
- Draw21%
- Deportivo Binacional21%
2.18 expected goals for Academia Cantolao
1.43 expected goals for Deportivo Binacional
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
The model makes Academia Cantolao the clear favourite: 58% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Deportivo Binacional defence, which lets in 129% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Academia Cantolao attack, which scores 37% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 59% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Academia Cantolao
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Academia Cantolao attack−37%
- Deportivo Binacional defence+129%
Expected goals2.18
Deportivo Binacional
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Deportivo Binacional attack−33%
- Academia Cantolao defence+57%
Expected goals1.43
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals97%
- Over 1.5 goals88%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Over 3.5 goals49%
- Over 4.5 goals30%
- Both teams score56%
- Academia Cantolao or draw79%
- Draw or Deportivo Binacional42%
- No draw79%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.