Ayacucho FC vs Molinos El Pirata
- Ayacucho FC46%
- Draw28%
- Molinos El Pirata26%
1.47 expected goals for Ayacucho FC
1.21 expected goals for Molinos El Pirata
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Ayacucho FC has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Molinos El Pirata win at 26%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Molinos El Pirata attack, which scores 22% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Ayacucho FC attack, which scores 19% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 49% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Ayacucho FC
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Ayacucho FC attack−19%
- Molinos El Pirata defence+20%
Expected goals1.47
Molinos El Pirata
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Molinos El Pirata attack−22%
- Ayacucho FC defence+14%
Expected goals1.21
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals93%
- Over 1.5 goals75%
- Over 2.5 goals49%
- Over 3.5 goals28%
- Over 4.5 goals13%
- Both teams score52%
- Ayacucho FC or draw74%
- Draw or Molinos El Pirata54%
- No draw72%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.