Probably Football

Matches

Segunda División (Peru)

Saturday 31 October, 15:15

Comerciantes vs Deportivo Llacuabamba

  1. Comerciantes44%
  2. Draw31%
  3. Deportivo Llacuabamba25%

1.11 expected goals for Comerciantes

0.94 expected goals for Deportivo Llacuabamba

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Comerciantes has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 31% and a Deportivo Llacuabamba win at 25%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Comerciantes defence, which lets in 18% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Comerciantes attack, which scores 17% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 42% chance, and both teams scoring, 47%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Comerciantes

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Comerciantes attack−17%
  3. Deportivo Llacuabamba defence−12%

Expected goals1.11

Deportivo Llacuabamba

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Deportivo Llacuabamba attack−16%
  2. Comerciantes defence−18%

Expected goals0.94

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals86%
  2. Over 1.5 goals61%
  3. Over 2.5 goals42%
  4. Over 3.5 goals15%
  5. Over 4.5 goals6%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 03:36 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.