Probably Football

Matches

Segunda División (Peru)

Saturday 31 October, 15:15

Carlos A. Mannucci vs Bentín Tacna Heroica

  1. Carlos A. Mannucci49%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Bentín Tacna Heroica23%

1.50 expected goals for Carlos A. Mannucci

1.12 expected goals for Bentín Tacna Heroica

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Carlos A. Mannucci has the edge (49%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Bentín Tacna Heroica win at 23%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Bentín Tacna Heroica defence, which lets in 11% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 49% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Carlos A. Mannucci

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Carlos A. Mannucci attack+12%
  3. Bentín Tacna Heroica defence−11%

Expected goals1.50

Bentín Tacna Heroica

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Bentín Tacna Heroica attack−9%
  2. Carlos A. Mannucci defence−10%

Expected goals1.12

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals74%
  3. Over 2.5 goals49%
  4. Over 3.5 goals27%
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 03:36 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.