Probably Football

Matches

Segunda División (Peru)

Saturday 31 October, 15:15

Alianza Universidad vs U. San Martin

  1. Alianza Universidad48%
  2. Draw27%
  3. U. San Martin25%

1.66 expected goals for Alianza Universidad

1.33 expected goals for U. San Martin

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Alianza Universidad has the edge (48%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a U. San Martin win at 25%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the U. San Martin defence, which lets in 31% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Alianza Universidad attack, which scores 16% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 53% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Alianza Universidad

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Alianza Universidad attack−16%
  3. U. San Martin defence+31%

Expected goals1.66

U. San Martin

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. U. San Martin attack−10%
  2. Alianza Universidad defence+9%

Expected goals1.33

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals81%
  3. Over 2.5 goals53%
  4. Over 3.5 goals35%
  5. Over 4.5 goals18%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 03:36 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.