Probably Football

Matches

Primera División (Bolivia)

Independiente Petrolero vs Real Tomayapo

  1. Independiente Petrolero56%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Real Tomayapo18%

1.47 expected goals for Independiente Petrolero

0.99 expected goals for Real Tomayapo

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Independiente Petrolero the clear favourite: 56% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Real Tomayapo attack, which scores 32% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 9.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Independiente Petrolero

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Independiente Petrolero attack−1%
  3. Real Tomayapo defence−2%

Expected goals1.47

Real Tomayapo

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Real Tomayapo attack−32%
  2. Independiente Petrolero defence+8%

Expected goals0.99

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals71%
  3. Over 2.5 goals51%
  4. Over 3.5 goals23%
  5. Over 4.5 goals10%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.4 expected

5.1 for Independiente Petrolero and 4.3 for Real Tomayapo

  1. Over 8.5 corners56%
  2. Over 9.5 corners46%
  3. Over 10.5 corners36%

Cards

4.8 expected

2.4 for Independiente Petrolero and 2.4 for Real Tomayapo

  1. Over 3.5 cards71%
  2. Over 4.5 cards53%
  3. Over 5.5 cards35%

Shots

30.4 expected

16.8 for Independiente Petrolero and 13.6 for Real Tomayapo

  1. Over 20.5 shots91%
  2. Over 22.5 shots84%
  3. Over 24.5 shots76%

Fouls

25.1 expected

12.1 for Independiente Petrolero and 13.0 for Real Tomayapo

  1. Over 20.5 fouls79%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls67%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls52%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.