Probably Football

Matches

Primera División (Bolivia)

Universitario de Vinto vs Always Ready

  1. Universitario de Vinto16%
  2. Draw8%
  3. Always Ready76%

0.80 expected goals for Universitario de Vinto

2.88 expected goals for Always Ready

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Always Ready the clear favourite: 76% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Always Ready attack, which scores 76% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Always Ready defence, which lets in 35% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 65% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 10.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Universitario de Vinto

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Universitario de Vinto attack−18%
  3. Always Ready defence−35%

Expected goals0.80

Always Ready

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Always Ready attack+76%
  2. Universitario de Vinto defence+20%

Expected goals2.88

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals89%
  3. Over 2.5 goals65%
  4. Over 3.5 goals50%
  5. Over 4.5 goals31%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.8 expected

6.8 for Universitario de Vinto and 4.0 for Always Ready

  1. Over 8.5 corners69%
  2. Over 9.5 corners59%
  3. Over 10.5 corners49%

Cards

5.6 expected

3.1 for Universitario de Vinto and 2.4 for Always Ready

  1. Over 3.5 cards81%
  2. Over 4.5 cards65%
  3. Over 5.5 cards48%

Shots

29.7 expected

14.7 for Universitario de Vinto and 15.0 for Always Ready

  1. Over 20.5 shots89%
  2. Over 22.5 shots82%
  3. Over 24.5 shots74%

Fouls

27.5 expected

15.0 for Universitario de Vinto and 12.5 for Always Ready

  1. Over 20.5 fouls89%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls81%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls69%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.