Probably Football

Matches

Primera División (Bolivia)

The Strongest vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ

  1. The Strongest68%
  2. Draw19%
  3. Gualberto Villarroel SJ13%

2.09 expected goals for The Strongest

1.03 expected goals for Gualberto Villarroel SJ

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes The Strongest the clear favourite: 68% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the The Strongest defence, which lets in 21% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the The Strongest attack, which scores 26% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 59% chance, and both teams scoring, 55%. And about 9.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

The Strongest

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. The Strongest attack+26%
  3. Gualberto Villarroel SJ defence+10%

Expected goals2.09

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Gualberto Villarroel SJ attack−4%
  2. The Strongest defence−21%

Expected goals1.03

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals82%
  3. Over 2.5 goals59%
  4. Over 3.5 goals38%
  5. Over 4.5 goals21%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.4 expected

5.4 for The Strongest and 3.9 for Gualberto Villarroel SJ

  1. Over 8.5 corners56%
  2. Over 9.5 corners45%
  3. Over 10.5 corners35%

Cards

4.7 expected

1.8 for The Strongest and 2.9 for Gualberto Villarroel SJ

  1. Over 3.5 cards69%
  2. Over 4.5 cards50%
  3. Over 5.5 cards33%

Shots

32.2 expected

20.3 for The Strongest and 11.9 for Gualberto Villarroel SJ

  1. Over 20.5 shots93%
  2. Over 22.5 shots88%
  3. Over 24.5 shots81%

Fouls

24.2 expected

11.0 for The Strongest and 13.3 for Gualberto Villarroel SJ

  1. Over 20.5 fouls75%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls61%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls46%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.