Probably Football

Matches

Primera División (Bolivia)

Saturday 31 October, 14:00

Real Oruro vs Nacional Potosí

  1. Real Oruro39%
  2. Draw21%
  3. Nacional Potosí40%

1.46 expected goals for Real Oruro

2.05 expected goals for Nacional Potosí

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 40%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Real Oruro defence, which lets in 41% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Nacional Potosí defence, which lets in 19% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 63% chance, and both teams scoring, 59%. And about 11.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Real Oruro

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Real Oruro attack+20%
  3. Nacional Potosí defence−19%

Expected goals1.46

Nacional Potosí

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Nacional Potosí attack+7%
  2. Real Oruro defence+41%

Expected goals2.05

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals87%
  3. Over 2.5 goals63%
  4. Over 3.5 goals47%
  5. Over 4.5 goals28%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.9 expected

5.7 for Real Oruro and 6.2 for Nacional Potosí

  1. Over 8.5 corners77%
  2. Over 9.5 corners68%
  3. Over 10.5 corners59%

Cards

4.8 expected

2.3 for Real Oruro and 2.5 for Nacional Potosí

  1. Over 3.5 cards70%
  2. Over 4.5 cards51%
  3. Over 5.5 cards34%

Shots

32.8 expected

18.1 for Real Oruro and 14.7 for Nacional Potosí

  1. Over 20.5 shots94%
  2. Over 22.5 shots90%
  3. Over 24.5 shots84%

Fouls

24.9 expected

13.2 for Real Oruro and 11.7 for Nacional Potosí

  1. Over 20.5 fouls79%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls66%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls51%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 02:06 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.