Probably Football

Matches

Primera División (Bolivia)

Sunday 25 October, 18:30

Final score

Oriente Petrolero2-1The Strongest

The model's most likely result happened: a Oriente Petrolero win (42%).

Oriente Petrolero vs The Strongest

  1. Oriente Petrolero42%
  2. Draw25%
  3. The Strongest33%

1.30 expected goals for Oriente Petrolero

1.59 expected goals for The Strongest

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Oriente Petrolero has the edge (42%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a The Strongest win at 33%. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 56% chance, and both teams scoring, 55%. And about 9.8 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals79%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals56%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals33%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals17%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.8 for Oriente Petrolero and 3.9 for The Strongest

  1. Over 8.5 corners59%
  2. Over 9.5 corners49%
  3. Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

4.9 expected

2.5 for Oriente Petrolero and 2.4 for The Strongest

  1. Over 3.5 cards72%
  2. Over 4.5 cards54%
  3. Over 5.5 cards37%

Shots

25.8 expected

14.3 for Oriente Petrolero and 11.6 for The Strongest

  1. Over 20.5 shots77%
  2. Over 22.5 shots67%
  3. Over 24.5 shots55%

Fouls

29.6 expected

17.9 for Oriente Petrolero and 11.7 for The Strongest

  1. Over 20.5 fouls94%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls88%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls79%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.