Saturday 24 October, 18:30
Final score
Independiente Petrolero4-2ABB
The model's most likely result happened: a Independiente Petrolero win (63%).
Independiente Petrolero vs ABB
- Independiente Petrolero63%
- Draw21%
- ABB16%
1.94 expected goals for Independiente Petrolero
1.17 expected goals for ABB
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
What the model said before kickoff
The model makes Independiente Petrolero the clear favourite: 63% to win. It expects 3.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 59% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 8.8 corners.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals95%It happened
- Over 1.5 goals82%It happened
- Over 2.5 goals59%It happened
- Over 3.5 goals38%It happened
- Over 4.5 goals20%It happened
- Both teams score56%
- Independiente Petrolero or draw84%
- Draw or ABB37%
- No draw79%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
8.8 expected
5.1 for Independiente Petrolero and 3.7 for ABB
- Over 8.5 corners49%
- Over 9.5 corners39%
- Over 10.5 corners29%
Cards
3.8 expected
1.9 for Independiente Petrolero and 1.9 for ABB
- Over 3.5 cards52%
- Over 4.5 cards33%
- Over 5.5 cards18%
Shots
26.3 expected
14.9 for Independiente Petrolero and 11.3 for ABB
- Over 20.5 shots79%
- Over 22.5 shots69%
- Over 24.5 shots57%
Fouls
20.8 expected
10.3 for Independiente Petrolero and 10.5 for ABB
- Over 20.5 fouls51%
- Over 22.5 fouls35%
- Over 24.5 fouls22%
Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.