Probably Football

Matches

Copa del Rey (Spain)

Tuesday 27 October, 15:00

Final score

Tudelano0-4Zaragoza

The model's most likely result happened: a Zaragoza win (50%).

Tudelano vs Zaragoza

  1. Tudelano33%
  2. Draw17%
  3. Zaragoza50%

1.23 expected goals for Tudelano

1.10 expected goals for Zaragoza

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Zaragoza has the edge (50%), but not by much: a draw is at 17% and a Tudelano win at 33%. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance, and both teams scoring, 45%. And about 9.9 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals90%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals68%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals48%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals21%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals9%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

5.0 for Tudelano and 4.9 for Zaragoza

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

4.9 expected

2.1 for Tudelano and 2.8 for Zaragoza

  1. Over 3.5 cards72%
  2. Over 4.5 cards54%
  3. Over 5.5 cards36%

Shots

29.8 expected

12.2 for Tudelano and 17.7 for Zaragoza

  1. Over 20.5 shots89%
  2. Over 22.5 shots82%
  3. Over 24.5 shots73%

Fouls

29.0 expected

17.3 for Tudelano and 11.7 for Zaragoza

  1. Over 20.5 fouls93%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls86%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls77%

Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.