Probably Football

Matches

Copa del Rey (Spain)

Tuesday 27 October, 13:00

Final score (after extra time)

Sestao River4-3Espanyol

The model gave this result 15%. Its most likely result was a Espanyol win (73%).

Sestao River vs Espanyol

  1. Sestao River12%
  2. Draw15%
  3. Espanyol73%

0.89 expected goals for Sestao River

1.74 expected goals for Espanyol

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes Espanyol the clear favourite: 73% to win. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 54% chance, and both teams scoring, 46%. And about 9.2 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals74%
  3. Over 2.5 goals54%
  4. Over 3.5 goals27%
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.2 expected

5.3 for Sestao River and 3.9 for Espanyol

  1. Over 8.5 corners54%
  2. Over 9.5 corners44%
  3. Over 10.5 corners34%

Cards

5.0 expected

2.7 for Sestao River and 2.3 for Espanyol

  1. Over 3.5 cards73%
  2. Over 4.5 cards56%
  3. Over 5.5 cards38%

Shots

24.1 expected

14.7 for Sestao River and 9.4 for Espanyol

  1. Over 20.5 shots69%
  2. Over 22.5 shots57%
  3. Over 24.5 shots45%

Fouls

25.9 expected

11.9 for Sestao River and 13.9 for Espanyol

  1. Over 20.5 fouls83%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls72%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls58%

Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.