Probably Football

Matches

Copa del Rey (Spain)

Tuesday 27 October, 14:00

Final score

Ciudad de Lucena0-1Rayo Majadahonda

The model's most likely result happened: a Rayo Majadahonda win (49%).

Ciudad de Lucena vs Rayo Majadahonda

  1. Ciudad de Lucena36%
  2. Draw15%
  3. Rayo Majadahonda49%

1.70 expected goals for Ciudad de Lucena

1.48 expected goals for Rayo Majadahonda

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Rayo Majadahonda has the edge (49%), but not by much: a draw is at 15% and a Ciudad de Lucena win at 36%. It expects 3.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 60% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 9.2 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals83%It did not happen
  3. Over 2.5 goals60%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals39%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals22%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.2 expected

5.2 for Ciudad de Lucena and 4.0 for Rayo Majadahonda

  1. Over 8.5 corners54%
  2. Over 9.5 corners43%
  3. Over 10.5 corners33%

Cards

3.7 expected

1.6 for Ciudad de Lucena and 2.1 for Rayo Majadahonda

  1. Over 3.5 cards51%
  2. Over 4.5 cards32%
  3. Over 5.5 cards17%

Shots

24.6 expected

12.9 for Ciudad de Lucena and 11.7 for Rayo Majadahonda

  1. Over 20.5 shots72%
  2. Over 22.5 shots60%
  3. Over 24.5 shots48%

Fouls

27.7 expected

14.9 for Ciudad de Lucena and 12.8 for Rayo Majadahonda

  1. Over 20.5 fouls90%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls81%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls70%

Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.