Probably Football

Matches

Pernambucano - 1 (Brazil)

Guarany de Sobral vs Sete de Setembro

  1. Guarany de Sobral49%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Sete de Setembro25%

1.81 expected goals for Guarany de Sobral

1.32 expected goals for Sete de Setembro

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Guarany de Sobral has the edge (49%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Sete de Setembro win at 25%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Sete de Setembro attack, which scores 36% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Guarany de Sobral defence, which lets in 51% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Guarany de Sobral

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Guarany de Sobral attack−8%
  3. Sete de Setembro defence+30%

Expected goals1.81

Sete de Setembro

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Sete de Setembro attack−36%
  2. Guarany de Sobral defence+51%

Expected goals1.32

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals82%
  3. Over 2.5 goals51%
  4. Over 3.5 goals38%
  5. Over 4.5 goals21%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.