Serrano PE vs Jaguaré
- Serrano PE51%
- Draw26%
- Jaguaré23%
1.90 expected goals for Serrano PE
1.31 expected goals for Jaguaré
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Serrano PE has the edge (51%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Jaguaré win at 23%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Jaguaré defence, which lets in 31% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Serrano PE
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Serrano PE attack−4%
- Jaguaré defence+31%
Expected goals1.90
Jaguaré
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Jaguaré attack−5%
- Serrano PE defence+2%
Expected goals1.31
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals95%
- Over 1.5 goals84%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Over 3.5 goals40%
- Over 4.5 goals22%
- Both teams score53%
- Serrano PE or draw77%
- Draw or Jaguaré49%
- No draw74%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.