Probably Football

Matches

Pernambucano - 1 (Brazil)

Salgueiro vs Facilnet

  1. Salgueiro28%
  2. Draw31%
  3. Facilnet41%

1.08 expected goals for Salgueiro

1.30 expected goals for Facilnet

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Facilnet has the edge (41%), but not by much: a draw is at 31% and a Salgueiro win at 28%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Salgueiro attack, which scores 21% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Salgueiro defence, which lets in 18% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 45% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Salgueiro

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Salgueiro attack−21%
  3. Facilnet defence−10%

Expected goals1.08

Facilnet

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Facilnet attack+17%
  2. Salgueiro defence−18%

Expected goals1.30

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals90%
  2. Over 1.5 goals69%
  3. Over 2.5 goals45%
  4. Over 3.5 goals22%
  5. Over 4.5 goals9%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.