Probably Football

Matches

Pernambucano - 1 (Brazil)

Belo Jardim vs Ypiranga PE

  1. Belo Jardim30%
  2. Draw30%
  3. Ypiranga PE40%

1.23 expected goals for Belo Jardim

1.43 expected goals for Ypiranga PE

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Ypiranga PE has the edge (40%), but not by much: a draw is at 30% and a Belo Jardim win at 30%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Belo Jardim attack, which scores 17% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 47% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Belo Jardim

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Belo Jardim attack−17%
  3. Ypiranga PE defence−2%

Expected goals1.23

Ypiranga PE

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Ypiranga PE attack−8%
  2. Belo Jardim defence+14%

Expected goals1.43

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals75%
  3. Over 2.5 goals47%
  4. Over 3.5 goals28%
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.