Probably Football

Matches

Pernambucano - 1 (Brazil)

América PE vs Vera Cruz

  1. América PE59%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Vera Cruz17%

2.29 expected goals for América PE

1.20 expected goals for Vera Cruz

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes América PE the clear favourite: 59% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Vera Cruz defence, which lets in 29% more goals than an average team. Next comes the América PE attack, which scores 18% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 53% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

América PE

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. América PE attack+18%
  3. Vera Cruz defence+29%

Expected goals2.29

Vera Cruz

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Vera Cruz attack−4%
  2. América PE defence−8%

Expected goals1.20

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals87%
  3. Over 2.5 goals53%
  4. Over 3.5 goals46%
  5. Over 4.5 goals27%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.