Probably Football

Matches

Pernambucano - 1 (Brazil)

Saturday 31 October, 14:00

Ipojuca vs Íbis

  1. Ipojuca50%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Íbis23%

1.69 expected goals for Ipojuca

1.18 expected goals for Íbis

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Ipojuca has the edge (50%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a Íbis win at 23%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Íbis defence, which lets in 17% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 49% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Ipojuca

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Ipojuca attack−5%
  3. Íbis defence+17%

Expected goals1.69

Íbis

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Íbis attack−12%
  2. Ipojuca defence−2%

Expected goals1.17

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals79%
  3. Over 2.5 goals49%
  4. Over 3.5 goals32%
  5. Over 4.5 goals16%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 02:06 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.