Probably Football

Matches

Pernambucano - 1 (Brazil)

Saturday 31 October, 13:00

Santa Fe PE vs Aguia FC

  1. Santa Fe PE41%
  2. Draw29%
  3. Aguia FC30%

1.52 expected goals for Santa Fe PE

1.32 expected goals for Aguia FC

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Santa Fe PE has the edge (41%), but not by much: a draw is at 29% and a Aguia FC win at 30%. The biggest factor in these numbers is playing at home, which adds 11% to the goals of Santa Fe PE. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 49% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Santa Fe PE

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Santa Fe PE attack+1%
  3. Aguia FC defence0%

Expected goals1.52

Aguia FC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Aguia FC attack−9%
  2. Santa Fe PE defence+6%

Expected goals1.32

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals78%
  3. Over 2.5 goals49%
  4. Over 3.5 goals32%
  5. Over 4.5 goals16%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 01:06 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.