Probably Football

Matches

Pernambucano - 1 (Brazil)

Saturday 31 October, 13:00

Petrolina vs Ferroviario do Cabo

  1. Petrolina39%
  2. Draw32%
  3. Ferroviario do Cabo29%

1.26 expected goals for Petrolina

1.09 expected goals for Ferroviario do Cabo

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 39%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Petrolina attack, which scores 25% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 45% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Petrolina

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Petrolina attack−25%
  3. Ferroviario do Cabo defence+12%

Expected goals1.26

Ferroviario do Cabo

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Ferroviario do Cabo attack−10%
  2. Petrolina defence−10%

Expected goals1.09

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals90%
  2. Over 1.5 goals69%
  3. Over 2.5 goals45%
  4. Over 3.5 goals21%
  5. Over 4.5 goals9%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 01:06 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.