Probably Football

Matches

Pernambucano - 1 (Brazil)

Saturday 31 October, 13:00

Cha Grande vs Central SC

  1. Cha Grande34%
  2. Draw33%
  3. Central SC33%

1.12 expected goals for Cha Grande

1.11 expected goals for Central SC

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 34%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Central SC defence, which lets in 17% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 45% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Cha Grande

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Cha Grande attack−11%
  3. Central SC defence−17%

Expected goals1.12

Central SC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Central SC attack−12%
  2. Cha Grande defence−7%

Expected goals1.11

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals89%
  2. Over 1.5 goals66%
  3. Over 2.5 goals45%
  4. Over 3.5 goals19%
  5. Over 4.5 goals8%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 01:06 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.