Probably Football

Matches

Pro League (United Arab Emirates)

Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC

  1. Al-Jazira65%
  2. Draw21%
  3. Baniyas SC14%

2.08 expected goals for Al-Jazira

0.83 expected goals for Baniyas SC

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Al-Jazira the clear favourite: 65% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Al-Jazira defence, which lets in 30% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Al-Jazira attack, which scores 35% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 58% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 9.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Al-Jazira

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Al-Jazira attack+35%
  3. Baniyas SC defence+2%

Expected goals2.08

Baniyas SC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Baniyas SC attack−13%
  2. Al-Jazira defence−30%

Expected goals0.83

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals79%
  3. Over 2.5 goals58%
  4. Over 3.5 goals33%
  5. Over 4.5 goals17%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.6 for Al-Jazira and 4.2 for Baniyas SC

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

3.5 expected

1.4 for Al-Jazira and 2.1 for Baniyas SC

  1. Over 3.5 cards46%
  2. Over 4.5 cards27%
  3. Over 5.5 cards14%

Shots

30.1 expected

18.8 for Al-Jazira and 11.3 for Baniyas SC

  1. Over 20.5 shots90%
  2. Over 22.5 shots83%
  3. Over 24.5 shots74%

Fouls

23.3 expected

10.6 for Al-Jazira and 12.7 for Baniyas SC

  1. Over 20.5 fouls69%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls54%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls40%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.