Probably Football

Matches

Pro League (United Arab Emirates)

Al Wahda FC vs Hatta SC

  1. Al Wahda FC78%
  2. Draw16%
  3. Hatta SC6%

2.53 expected goals for Al Wahda FC

0.64 expected goals for Hatta SC

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Al Wahda FC the clear favourite: 78% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Hatta SC defence, which lets in 57% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Hatta SC attack, which scores 34% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 59% chance, and both teams scoring, 55%. And about 8.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Al Wahda FC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Al Wahda FC attack+7%
  3. Hatta SC defence+57%

Expected goals2.53

Hatta SC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Hatta SC attack−34%
  2. Al Wahda FC defence−29%

Expected goals0.64

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals83%
  3. Over 2.5 goals59%
  4. Over 3.5 goals39%
  5. Over 4.5 goals21%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

8.9 expected

5.1 for Al Wahda FC and 3.8 for Hatta SC

  1. Over 8.5 corners51%
  2. Over 9.5 corners40%
  3. Over 10.5 corners31%

Cards

3.6 expected

1.5 for Al Wahda FC and 2.1 for Hatta SC

  1. Over 3.5 cards48%
  2. Over 4.5 cards29%
  3. Over 5.5 cards15%

Shots

32.5 expected

21.7 for Al Wahda FC and 10.8 for Hatta SC

  1. Over 20.5 shots93%
  2. Over 22.5 shots88%
  3. Over 24.5 shots81%

Fouls

21.5 expected

11.1 for Al Wahda FC and 10.3 for Hatta SC

  1. Over 20.5 fouls56%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls40%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls26%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.