MVV vs Excelsior

MVV14%
Draw4%
Excelsior82%

0.82 expected goals for MVV

2.86 expected goals for Excelsior

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes Excelsior the clear favourite: 82% to win. It expects 3.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 70% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 9.4 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals97%It happened
Over 1.5 goals88%It happened
Over 2.5 goals70%It happened
Over 3.5 goals50%It did not happen
Over 4.5 goals31%It did not happen

Both teams score54%
MVV or draw18%
Draw or Excelsior86%
No draw96%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.4 expected

5.5 for MVV and 3.9 for Excelsior

Over 8.5 corners56%
Over 9.5 corners45%
Over 10.5 corners35%

Cards

3.3 expected

1.3 for MVV and 2.1 for Excelsior

Over 3.5 cards43%
Over 4.5 cards24%
Over 5.5 cards12%

Shots

25.3 expected

14.8 for MVV and 10.6 for Excelsior

Over 20.5 shots75%
Over 22.5 shots64%
Over 24.5 shots52%

Fouls

22.8 expected

10.7 for MVV and 12.1 for Excelsior

Over 20.5 fouls66%
Over 22.5 fouls50%
Over 24.5 fouls36%

Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.