Helmond Sport vs Willem II

Helmond Sport27%
Draw15%
Willem II58%

1.22 expected goals for Helmond Sport

1.94 expected goals for Willem II

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes Willem II the clear favourite: 58% to win. It expects 3.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 65% chance, and both teams scoring, 57%. And about 9.9 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals95%It happened
Over 1.5 goals83%It happened
Over 2.5 goals65%It happened
Over 3.5 goals39%It happened
Over 4.5 goals21%It happened

Both teams score57%
Helmond Sport or draw42%
Draw or Willem II72%
No draw85%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

5.5 for Helmond Sport and 4.4 for Willem II

Over 8.5 corners61%
Over 9.5 corners51%
Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.9 for Helmond Sport and 2.2 for Willem II

Over 3.5 cards59%
Over 4.5 cards40%
Over 5.5 cards24%

Shots

31.1 expected

19.2 for Helmond Sport and 11.8 for Willem II

Over 20.5 shots92%
Over 22.5 shots86%
Over 24.5 shots78%

Fouls

23.0 expected

12.4 for Helmond Sport and 10.6 for Willem II

Over 20.5 fouls68%
Over 22.5 fouls52%
Over 24.5 fouls38%

Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.