Probably Football

Matches

CONMEBOL Sudamericana (International)

Wednesday 21 October, 15:00

Final score

Atletico Torque2-0Atletico-MG

The model gave this result 23%. Its most likely result was a Atletico-MG win (53%).

Atletico Torque vs Atletico-MG

  1. Atletico Torque23%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Atletico-MG53%

1.05 expected goals for Atletico Torque

1.85 expected goals for Atletico-MG

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Atletico-MG has the edge (53%), but not by much: a draw is at 24% and a Atletico Torque win at 23%. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 50% chance, and both teams scoring, 46%. And about 10.1 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals79%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals50%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals33%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals17%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

5.3 for Atletico Torque and 4.8 for Atletico-MG

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners53%
  3. Over 10.5 corners43%

Cards

4.4 expected

2.0 for Atletico Torque and 2.4 for Atletico-MG

  1. Over 3.5 cards64%
  2. Over 4.5 cards45%
  3. Over 5.5 cards28%

Shots

24.6 expected

13.2 for Atletico Torque and 11.4 for Atletico-MG

  1. Over 20.5 shots72%
  2. Over 22.5 shots60%
  3. Over 24.5 shots48%

Fouls

19.8 expected

9.6 for Atletico Torque and 10.2 for Atletico-MG

  1. Over 20.5 fouls42%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls27%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls16%

Saved before kickoff, on 21 October at 07:01 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.