Wednesday 28 October, 14:45
Final score (on penalties)
Fleetwood Town1-1Arsenal
The model gave this result 8%. Its most likely result was a Arsenal win (90%).
Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal
- Fleetwood Town2%
- Draw8%
- Arsenal90%
0.32 expected goals for Fleetwood Town
3.27 expected goals for Arsenal
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
What the model said before kickoff
The model makes Arsenal the clear favourite: 90% to win. It expects 3.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 59% chance, and both teams scoring, 47%. And about 10.1 corners.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals97%
- Over 1.5 goals87%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Over 3.5 goals48%
- Over 4.5 goals29%
- Both teams score47%
- Fleetwood Town or draw10%
- Draw or Arsenal97%
- No draw92%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.1 expected
5.4 for Fleetwood Town and 4.7 for Arsenal
- Over 8.5 corners63%
- Over 9.5 corners52%
- Over 10.5 corners42%
Cards
4.2 expected
2.0 for Fleetwood Town and 2.2 for Arsenal
- Over 3.5 cards60%
- Over 4.5 cards41%
- Over 5.5 cards24%
Shots
25.1 expected
13.8 for Fleetwood Town and 11.3 for Arsenal
- Over 20.5 shots74%
- Over 22.5 shots63%
- Over 24.5 shots51%
Fouls
23.6 expected
12.2 for Fleetwood Town and 11.4 for Arsenal
- Over 20.5 fouls71%
- Over 22.5 fouls57%
- Over 24.5 fouls42%
Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.